The annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) wrapped up on Saturday, March 28, 2026, with a clear message: the race to succeed President Donald Trump in 2028 is officially a two-man contest.
While Vice President JD Vance secured his second consecutive straw poll victory, the real story of the weekend was the meteoric rise of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose “interventionist” foreign policy and high-visibility role in the Iran conflict have made him a favorite among the party’s grassroots.
1. The Numbers: A Consolidating Field
The straw poll, which surveyed more than 1,600 attendees, showed a massive consolidation of support. Unlike previous years where the field was fragmented, 88% of the vote went to just two individuals.
2. The “Vance” Defense: Continuity and FaithDespite a slight drop from his 2025 high of 61%, Vance remains the clear frontrunner. Attendees cited his alignment with the working-class “Ohio” wing of the MAGA movement and his vocal Christian faith as his greatest strengths.
“He’s a real, genuine person, and he’s willing to proclaim his faith in Jesus Christ in public,” said one 58-year-old attendee from Fort Worth. For many, Vance is the natural heir to the domestic populist agenda.
3. The “Rubio” Surge: The War Architect
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s jump from 3% to 35% in a single year is unprecedented in CPAC history. His rise is being attributed to:
Foreign Policy Leadership: Rubio is viewed as a key architect of the administration’s “interventionist” stance, particularly regarding the military actions in Iran and the ousting of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
Conservative Stature: His speech at the memorial for the late Charlie Kirk in September 2025 was cited by several attendees as a turning point that “won them over.”
4. A Party Divided by War?
While the straw poll shows support for the top two leaders, it also highlights a fissure in the MAGA movement. While 90% of respondents approved of using force to topple the Iranian regime, isolationists like Steve Bannon—who took 12% of the vote last year—failed to register significant support this time around, signaling a shift toward a more hawkish base.
The Bottom Line
With the 2028 election still on the horizon, the GOP is no longer just “the party of Trump.” It is now a party navigating the legacy of a Vice President who champions the domestic base and a Secretary of State who is defining America’s role in a global conflict.
