On Saturday, January 31, 2026, the roof of Rod Laver Arena might just lift off. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina have set up a repeat of their epic 2023 final. Both women have reached this stage without dropping a single set—a feat not seen in nearly two decades.
While Sabalenka leads their overall head-to-head 8-6, Rybakina enters the final with the confidence of having defeated the Belarusian in the final of the 2025 WTA Finals.
1. The Serving Duel: Ice vs. Fire
The outcome of this final rests almost entirely on who can protect their serve under pressure.
The Rybakina “Ice”: Elena Rybakina has the most clinical serve in women’s tennis. She currently leads the tournament with 58 aces. Her strategy is simple: high first-serve percentage and flat, “cold” precision. If she serves above 65%, she is nearly impossible to break.
The Sabalenka “Fire”: Sabalenka’s serve is about raw intimidation. While she has improved her consistency, her second serve remains a target. However, her return of serve has become her greatest weapon in 2026, allowing her to break opponents like Svitolina at will.
2. Baseline Aggression: Who Blinks First?
Both players prefer to end points in three shots or less.
Tactical Shift: In her semi-final against Jessica Pegula, Rybakina showed some nerves when trying to close out the match, allowing two breaks of serve. Against Sabalenka, she cannot afford “erratic forehands.”
Sabalenka’s New Variety: Sabalenka noted after her semi-final that she has added “touch, slice, and better defense” to her game. Watch for her to use the short-angle slice to pull Rybakina out of her comfort zone at the baseline.
3. The Mental Edge
Sabalenka is chasing her third Australian Open title in four years, a level of dominance reminiscent of the greats.
The Pressure: Rybakina is the underdog (8/5 odds), but she is also a “brain” player. She admitted that she plans to “refresh her brain” with some shopping in Melbourne before the final—a testament to her relaxed, stoic approach
