While the Libyan National Army (LNA) has officially retaken the Al-Toum crossing, the raid by the Tebu-led “Operations Room for the Liberation of the South” has exposed a glaring vulnerability in Khalifa Haftar’s southern strategy. This wasn’t just a hit-and-run; it was a declaration of war against the LNA’s grip on the Fezzan region.
1. The Rise of the “Haftar Dynasty” in the South
The response to the attack has been led not by the Field Marshal himself, but by his sons. Abdulhadi Hassan Haftar, commander of the elite Fifth Brigade, was the one tasked with the immediate counter-offensive.
The Consolidation: This move follows the 2024 appointment of Saddam Haftar as Chief of Staff of the Land Forces. The deployment of the Fifth Brigade isn’t just about security; it’s about signaling that the Haftar family now has direct, boots-on-the-ground control over the desert’s most lucrative smuggling and trade routes.
The Challenge: The Tebu militants, led by Baraka Wardako al-Tabawi, are specifically targeting this “family rule,” framing their insurgency as a fight against the monopolization of southern resources.
2. The Oil Field “Hostage” Risk
The most terrifying aspect of the border clash for international observers is the proximity to the Sharara and El Feel (Elephant) oil fields.
The Strategy: The “Southern Revolutionaries” know they don’t need to defeat the LNA in a pitched battle; they only need to create enough instability to force a force majeure (legal shutdown) of the oil fields.
Economic Leverage: Control over the South determines whether the lights stay on in Tripoli. By attacking the Al-Toum gateway, the militants are demonstrating their ability to cut off the LNA’s logistics and potentially threaten the energy infrastructure that funds Haftar’s entire military apparatus.
3. The Regional Domino Effect: Niger and Sudan
The timing of the clash is no coincidence. Libya’s southern border is currently a “super-highway” for weapons and fuel flowing into the civil war in Sudan.
The Sudan Connection: Recent reports suggest that Haftar’s forces have been under intense pressure from Egypt and Saudi Arabia to stop the transit of supplies to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.
The Twist: Some analysts believe the Tebu raid may have been emboldened by regional shifts, as different actors seek to weaken Haftar’s “strategic corridor” that links the Mediterranean to the heart of the Sahel.
