1. The Fintech 2.0 Revolution: AI is the New M-PESA
Safaricom has officially transitioned from a telco to a “TechCo.” In late 2025, the company completed its migration to Fintech 2.0, a cloud-native, AI-powered overhaul of M-PESA.
Transaction Capacity: The system jumped from 6,000 to a staggering 12,000 transactions per second (TPS) at peak.
Self-Healing and Security: Using AI, the platform now identifies fraud in real-time and features “self-healing” code that fixes glitches before users even notice a delay.
Personalized Finance: Features like “Share the Wallet” and “Split Bill” are rolling out this quarter, aimed at capturing the Gen Z and MSME markets that demand social, flexible payment tools.
2. The Ethiopia “Pivot”: From Liability to Asset
For three years, the Ethiopian subsidiary was a “drag” on Safaricom’s valuation. In 2026, that narrative is flipping.
Customer Base: Active users hit 12.2 million this February, exceeding the upper limit of management’s guidance.
Monetization: While the Birr depreciation was a headwind, service revenue in Ethiopia more than doubled to KES 6.2 billion.
The Break-Even Clock: Analysts from Absa and AIB-AXYS now agree that Safaricom Ethiopia is on a “firm path” to break even by FY 2027. Once that unit turns profitable, the “double-engine” growth (Kenya + Ethiopia) will be the catalyst for a massive valuation re-rating.
3. Analyst Corner: The Road to KES 40
Is KES 40 realistic? After hitting KES 32.50 this week, the market sentiment is “Strong Buy.”
Price Targets: Consensus estimates from leading NSE analysts have shifted upward. While the average target sits at KES 36.50, “bull case” scenarios suggest Safaricom could touch KES 40.00 by Q4 2026 if the following three conditions are met:
Inflation Stability: Kenyan inflation remains below 5%.
Ethiopia ARPU: Average Revenue Per User in Ethiopia grows by another 15%.
Data Dominance: Mobile data revenue (currently KES 44.5B) continues to grow at double digits to offset the decline in legacy voice services.
