While the IEBC is busy checking KIEMS kits and distributing ballot boxes, the real story of the February 26 by-elections lies in the extraordinary personal and generational battles unfolding in Isiolo South, West Kabras, Muminji, and Evurore.
As campaigns officially closed at midnight on February 24, the political noise has been replaced by a tense, heavy silence. But beneath the surface, these polls are about more than just filling empty seats; they are about the soul of local representation.
The Isiolo South “Sibling Rivalry”
The crown jewel of Thursday’s poll is the Isiolo South parliamentary seat. However, it’s not just the party colors that have people talking—it’s the bloodlines. In a rare and dramatic turn of events, the race features a brother and sister facing off for the same seat.
This “family feud” has divided households across the constituency. While one sibling runs on a platform of established experience and party backing, the other has positioned themselves as the voice of the youth and reform. For the voters of Isiolo South, the choice isn’t just political; it’s deeply personal. Can a family dinner survive a parliamentary by-election? Thursday will tell.
The Gen Z Litmus Test: Moving from “X” to the Ballot
2026 has been defined by the “Democratic Dilemma” of Kenya’s younger generation. After a year of digital activism and decentralized organizing, the by-elections in West Kabras and Mbeere North represent the first major opportunity for “Gen Z” candidates to prove they can win in a system traditionally dominated by ethnic bargaining and deep pockets.
In West Kabras, young independent candidates have shunned traditional “helicopter campaigns,” opting instead for door-to-door town halls and viral TikTok mobilizations. If these candidates can pull off an upset against the heavy machinery of the major coalitions, it will send a tectonic shock through the Kenyan political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Mbeere North: The Battle for the Wards
In Muminji and Evurore wards, the focus is hyper-local. Residents are demanding answers on water scarcity, agricultural markets, and infrastructure. Unlike national elections, where “big-picture” promises rule, these ward battles are being won and lost on the granular details of village-level development.
The two major coalitions have treated these wards as a “testing ground” for their ground game. Observers have noted that the level of resource mobilization in these small wards is unprecedented, signaling how much both sides value a win to boost morale.
Why This Election is Different
What makes these by-elections unique is the context of 2026. With the cost-of-living crisis still a primary concern for many Kenyans, voters are displaying a “no-nonsense” attitude toward career politicians. The IEBC has noted a high level of engagement during voter education, suggesting that while the number of seats is small, the public’s desire to participate is high.
What to Watch for on Thursday
Turnout in Isiolo: Will the “sibling factor” drive more people to the polls out of curiosity, or will it lead to voter apathy?
The “Independent” Surge: Watch the results in West Kabras closely. A win for an independent youth candidate would be a historic marker.
Peaceful Transitions: With security heightened, the biggest win for Kenya would be a transparent process that concludes without the violence that has marred previous by-elections.
Stay Updated
The polls open at 6:00 AM this Thursday. Whether it’s the dramatic family showdown in the north or the youth-led revolution in the west, we will bring you the results as they happen.
